Reposted Feb. 26, 2012

Political Experts Predict Major Black Vote for Obama Despite Apathy and New Voting Laws 

By Hazel Trice Edney

(TriceEdneyWire.com) – Nearly 17 million African-Americans voted in the 2008 presidential election; then packed out the U. S. Capital grounds to witness the inauguration of America’s first Black president. But, in the mid-term elections of 2010, Black voting dropped off significantly to only 11 million, six million less than 2008.

Also, enthusiasm has appeared to wane for the Obama administration – largely due to high Black unemployment rates and other economic issues. Despite these factors, experts on Black politics predict Obama will draw masses of Black voters back to the polls on Nov. 6, 2012. In fact, some believe new voter laws created by Republicans will cause more of a hindrance than any political opinions.

“There are some problems. In some states, they passed these laws, the voter photo [identification] laws that make things more difficult,” says David Bositis, senior analyst of Black politics for the Joint Center on Political and Economic Studies. “But in terms of enthusiasm for President Obama and will he have resources and his people have resources to do it? Yes.”

New voting laws, including voter identification laws, being passed by mostly Republicans in legislatures around the country are intended to target and intimidate Black voting, voting analysts and civil rights leaders believe.

“The Republicans, they would like to pass a Black People Can’t Vote Act,” Bositis said. “That would be like a guaranteed Republican win.”

But, that strategy does not appear to be working. In terms of resources, President Obama has raised more than $222 million from donations of $250 or less. That’s more than double the amount raised by Republican Mitt Romney, his closest rival.

Like Bositis, Howard University political scientist Wilmer J. Leon III predicts Obama will have no problems drawing the six million Blacks back to the polls. This is despite complaints of pundits and academics like Tavis Smiley and Dr. Cornell West, who have heavily criticized Obama for what they perceive as his insufficiently addressing problems in the Black community.

A lower turnout in the mid-term elections is no indicator of the enthusiasm level in November, Leon explains.

“There’s a standard reduction in turnout for mid-term elections; so some of that is that natural mid-term drop off,” he says. “So I think that a good number of the African-American vote is going to turn out again, primarily for the same reason that we turned out in 2008.”

Leon says even if there is less enthusiasm among Blacks, that will not hinder the vote.

“I have heard anecdotally that there are those who are frustrated with him. There are those who have said that they are not going to campaign for him, there are those who have said that they’re taking their stickers off of their cars, but they also have said they will vote for him,” Leon said. “I think there are going to be a very small number of people in terms of the African-American community who are just not going to turn out.”

National political polls show an Obama win over all Republican candidates left in the race. They are Romney, former governor of Massachusetts; Rick Santorum, former Pennsylvania senator; Newt Gingrich, former House speaker; and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

With the overall jobless rate having dropped from double digits down to 8.3 percent last month and even the still-too-high Black unemployment rate having dropped from 15.8 percent to 13.6 percent, the Obama successes appear to be looking increasingly better.

“So long as it continues to trend in the right the direction, then the President is able to make a strong case that he’s doing the right thing,” Leon said.

Besides, he observes, the Republican Party appears to have become hopelessly stratified.

“What we’re really witnessing is this internal ideological struggle within the conservative wing of the Republican Party. So, whether it’s Libertarian, whether it’s social conservatives, whether it’s Christian conservatives, or the Tea Party, The Republican Party has, to me, to a great degree, lost its way and lost its message and they’re fighting over control of the party,” Leon said.

So, while Republicans fight among themselves, Obama’s greatest challenge appears to be the need to overcome discouraging voting laws and inspire voters to the polls.

Ultimately, Leon concludes, “The other thing is that he really doesn’t have any Republican opposition of any real substance.”